CASE-SIMCS2 Case Odds & Drop Rates
Every CS2 case opening uses a fixed probability system that determines which rarity tier your item falls into. These rates were officially published by Valve and apply to all standard weapon cases. Below is a complete breakdown of how CS2 case opening odds work.
How CS2 Case Opening Works
When you open a CS2 case, the game first rolls which rarity tier your item will be — from Mil-Spec Grade (most common) up to Covert (rarest standard drop) or the Rare Special Item pool (knives and gloves). Once the tier is selected, a random item is chosen from that tier within the case.
Each opening is completely independent. Previous results have no effect on future outcomes — there is no pity system, no streak bonus, and no way to influence the roll. The same fixed probabilities apply every time, regardless of which case you open or how many you have opened before.
Weapon Case Drop Rates
Standard CS2 weapon case rarity distribution — applies to all weapon cases
StatTrak items have a ~10.00% chance on any eligible drop (~1 in 10)
Source: Valve (CS:GO China official disclosure)
Knives & Gloves — Rare Special Items
Knives and gloves belong to the Rare Special Item pool with a drop rate of approximately 0.26% per opening — roughly 1 in 385 cases. When the game rolls a Rare Special Item, one knife or glove is randomly selected from that case's rare pool.
A StatTrak version of a knife has an additional 10% chance on top of the rare special drop, making a StatTrak knife approximately a 0.026% chance — around 1 in 3,850 openings.
Souvenir Package Drop Rates
Souvenir packages use a separate rarity system with six tiers and no Rare Special Items
Source: Valve (CS:GO China official disclosure)
Sticker & Capsule Drop Rates
Approximate rates for sticker capsules, autograph capsules, and patch capsules
Source: Community research (approximate)
StatTrak Odds
StatTrak is a modifier that tracks your confirmed kills on a weapon skin. When you unbox an item from a standard weapon case, there is approximately a 10% chance that the item will be a StatTrak version.
StatTrak is only available in standard weapon cases. Souvenir packages drop Souvenir items instead, and sticker, autograph, and patch capsules do not include StatTrak variants.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of unboxing a knife in CS2?
The odds of unboxing a knife or glove (Rare Special Item) from a standard CS2 weapon case are approximately 0.26%, or about 1 in 385 openings. This rate is based on official data published by Valve for the Chinese version of CS:GO.
Are CS2 case odds the same for every case?
Yes. All standard CS2 weapon cases share the same rarity drop rate distribution. The odds of getting a Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, Covert, or Rare Special Item are identical regardless of which weapon case you open.
What is the StatTrak chance in CS2?
StatTrak versions have approximately a 10% chance of appearing on any eligible drop. This means roughly 1 in 10 items you unbox will be StatTrak. StatTrak is not available in souvenir packages or capsules.
Do souvenir packages have different drop rates?
Yes. Souvenir packages use a different rarity distribution with six tiers (Consumer Grade through Covert) instead of five. They do not include Rare Special Items like knives or gloves, and items cannot be StatTrak.
Are CS2 case odds published by Valve?
Valve published official case odds for the Chinese version of CS:GO as required by local regulations. These rates are widely accepted as the standard drop rates used in all versions of the game, including Counter-Strike 2.
Does opening more cases increase your odds?
No. Each case opening is an independent event with the same fixed probabilities. Opening more cases does not improve your chances on subsequent openings. There is no pity system or streak bonus in CS2.
What are sticker capsule drop rates?
Sticker, autograph, and patch capsules use approximate community-researched drop rates since Valve has not officially published these. The rarity tiers range from High Grade (most common) to Master/Superior (rarest).
Test These Odds for Free
Open any CS2 case in our free simulator and see the drop rates in action. No real money, no risk — just realistic case openings.
View Odds by Case
Each case page includes a full item list, rarity breakdown, and case-specific drop rates